This study integrated numerical models with high spatial resolution.
A study by the University of Aveiro (UA) that integrated numerical models of high spatial resolution, adapted to each location, concludes that the water level “will rise, but without catastrophism”.
According to that study, in the year 2055, in the Tagus estuary, 10.9 square kilometers of urban areas will be flooded due to the combined effect of the tide, the rise in mean sea level and as a result of extreme weather phenomena, which can occur once every 100 years.
By 2100, that figure will be 14.9 square kilometers, with researchers predicting that around 66 square kilometers of agricultural and grazing areas will be flooded by 2055.
It is estimated that more than 6500 people could be affected by the rising water of the Tagus estuary in 2055. In 2100 the number of people affected will exceed 12500.
Likewise, with regard to urban areas, in the Ria de Aveiro there will be 6.4 square kilometers of flooded area in 2055 and eight by 2100, at the mouth of the Mondego 1.4 in 2055 and 1.7 by 2100 in the estuary do Sado 5.6 in 2055 and 6.7 until 2100 and in Ria Formosa 3.6 square kilometers in 2055 and 4.4 until 2100.
“The numbers are not alarming, despite all the damage resulting from the loss of territory”, considers João Miguel Dias, from the University of Aveiro.